Shakespeare on GeoDesign

I've been trying to figure out why ESRI is suddenly trying to make such a big deal of "GeoDesign" - this announcement talks about introducing "the first generation of geodesign concepts, technologies, and tools". But people have been doing design in GIS for decades - the first release of Smallworld in 1991 was really all about design, with features like version management to enable you to analyze multiple alternative designs, etc etc. In the 1980s IBM GFIS was heavily used for design applications. I've come to the conclusion that maybe they've been trying to think of something they can say that they do which those pesky neogeographers don't do (yet!), and trying to present design as something new and cool is their attempt to do this. Anyone else have any theories? It all just seems a bit odd to me.

Anyway, I was browsing a little Shakespeare in preparation for my talks in Stratford upon Avon next week, as you do, and discovered that actually GeoDesign is even older than this. It goes back to the 16th century at least - here is a surprisingly detailed description of the design and construction process from Lord Bardolph in King Henry IV, Part 2 (maybe there's a reason why this wasn't one of his greatest hits!):

"... When we mean to build,

We first survey the plot, then draw the model;

And when we see the figure of the house,

Then we must rate the cost of the erection;

Which if we find outweighs ability,

What do we then but draw anew the model

In fewer offices, or at least desist

To build at all? Much more, in this great work,

Which is almost to pluck a kingdom down

And set another up, should we survey

The plot of situation and the model,

Consent upon a sure foundation,

Question surveyors, know our own estate,

How able such a work to undergo,

To weigh against his opposite; or else

We fortify in paper and in figures,

Using the names of men instead of men;

Like one that draws the model of a house

Beyond his power to build it; who, half through,

Gives o'er and leaves his part-created cost

A naked subject to the weeping clouds

And waste for churlish winter's tyranny."

(First posted in the comments on a previous post, but I decided it deserved its own entry!)

Google PowerMeter accidentally wipes out small industry on the way to changing the world??

I spent the last few days at the Autovation conference in Denver, which is focused on Smart Metering and the Smart Grid, an area that I am becoming increasingly interested in and one where Enspiria is doing a lot of work (where I work part time as Chief Technology Advisor). It was a very interesting conference - there is certainly lots of activity and energy in the space, especially since the stimulus bill committed $4.3bn to Smart Grid projects - and utilities need to match this funding, so close to $9bn will be spent over the next couple of years. That's a large enough sum to even interest the likes of Google and Microsoft in electric utility applications, something they haven't been into previously.

So it was interesting that the closing speaker at the conference was Ed Hu from Google (who is incidentally a former astronaut, who has spent six months on the space station!). He is responsible for their PowerMeter initiative. This was announced earlier this year and I had previously skimmed articles on it, but have to admit that I hadn't grasped the full significance of it until Ed's talk yesterday. You can see a short description of what it's all about in this one minute video:

In summary, it lets you see detailed information about your home's power consumption, enabling you to change your behavior to reduce consumption. Ed draws an analogy with the fuel consumption readout in a Toyota Prius, which encourages you to modify your driving style to maximize your fuel consumption (I can vouch for this). He says that in their trials so far, people using PowerMeter have typically got anywhere from 5-15% savings on their electricity bill. As I talked about in my previous Smart Grid video, one reason for having smart meters is to enable customers to have access to this type of information, in order to encourage them to change their behavior and reduce electricity consumption. This has various benefits including reduction in carbon emissions. Usage data for Google PowerMeter can be obtained either via your local utility, if they have installed smart meters and choose to offer the Google service (which requires them to interface their Meter Data Management System, MDMS, to Google), or alternatively you will be able to buy devices to install in your home and read consumption directly. Ed said that if they could get the same level of usage reductions as they got in their pilot, from 6 million users, this would be equivalent to the reduction in carbon emissions due to all the hybrid cars currently on the road.

This initiative is being run by google.org, the philanthropic arm of Google, and the system is offered free to both consumers and utilities (and will continue to be free, Ed said). He also said that he'd been told personally by the CEO of Google, Eric Schmidt, that the aim of the project was "to change the world".

I'm excited in many ways to see Google getting involved - certainly they understand how to build applications to engage consumers, and this is not something that electric utilities generally have expertise in. And having Google involved certainly could significantly accelerate the development of this aspect of the Smart Grid. However, it's potentially very disruptive for a number of existing companies in this space, who are trying to do much the same thing. Companies like Greenbox and Tendril seem to have strong overlap with what Google is doing here. In this story at earth2tech shortly after the initial announcement of PowerMeter, both try to put a somewhat positive spin on Google getting involved in the space, but it will be hard for them or others to compete with the core Google offering, especially since it is going to be free. Perhaps they can find niches that are complementary to what Google is doing, but they and other companies in this space seem in a somewhat precarious position to me.

The one other player in this space that I haven't mentioned, who are probably in a stronger position to compete with Google, is Microsoft, who have a relatively similar offering called Microsoft Hohm. Earth2tech compares the two. They say that Microsoft intends to charge utilities for their offering eventually - and also says that Microsoft intends to move into the space of controlling devices too. Someone at Autovation asked Ed if Google was planning to move into control of devices too, in addition to the data display they are doing now, and he indicated that this was very likely - though he said they wanted to focus on getting the display part right first. While he wasn't specific, if they did provide the ability to control devices for the consumer it is a logical step to provide that to the utility too, which gets them into the whole market area called Demand Response, potentially overlapping even more with existing companies.

After seeing all the disruption that Google and Microsoft have brought to the geospatial industry, it is interesting to see them moving aggressively into the consumer-related aspects of the Smart Grid. Google providing completely free enterprise solutions through its philanthropic arm is in some ways commendable and in other ways concerning (in terms of the ability of others to provide competition, and the risk that they could just wipe out multiple companies). One of the most common questions web entrepreneurs get asked when presenting to investors is "what if Google decides to do what you're doing?", and it seems as though people will need to be asking that question of companies in ever more diverse fields! It will be very interesting to see how all this develops over the next year or two, and how the existing companies in the space respond.

Looking forward to the AGI GeoCommunity conference

I'm very much looking forward to the AGI GeoCommunity conference which is coming up in Stratford upon Avon in a couple of weeks. Apart from Stratford being the birthplace of Shakespeare and a great place to visit, it's also very close to Leamington Spa where I used to live when I worked at IBM UK many years ago, so it will be a chance for me to catch up with old friends. It will also be the first time I've presented at a major UK conference since moving to the US 16 years ago, so I'm looking forward to talking in my homeland!

More importantly, from a general rather than a personal perspective it looks as though it will be a really interesting and fun event. I think Steven Feldman has done a great job introducing some new ideas this year, including the addition of a strong neogeography/geoweb element which really hasn't been there in previous years (see Ed Parsons' thoughts on this year and last). There will be a really strong geoweb track organized by Chris Osborne, founder of #geomob. And Andrew Turner and myself are giving the opening keynote talks - I know that mine will include a strong "neo" element, and since Andrew's is titled "How neogeography killed GIS", I'm guessing that his just might too :). I think that some of the most interesting conferences I've been to recently have been those that combine both traditional GIS and "neogeo" elements - like GeoWeb in Vancouver and, on a smaller scale, the WhereCamp5280 event we held recently in Denver. So I'm hoping that we'll get a lot of interesting discussion about how to combine the old and new geo worlds. Chris is also offering discounted day passes on his blog, in case you need any further incentive to attend!

There is going to be a "soapbox" event with lightning "Ignite" style talks on contentious topics, with a beer-fueled crowd, which sounds like a lot of fun. To get in the spirit of things I have submitted a talk called "The grass is always greener ... in defence of the Ordnance Survey" (for those not familiar with the UK national mapping agency, they tend to be a favorite punchbag for everyone in the UK geo industry ...)

So I'm slightly concerned that my talk may look like the famous "Rawhide" scene from the Blues Brothers - I hope they have the wire fence in place to protect the speakers :) !!

The conference party has a "black and white" theme and I think I have a prize-winning outfit lined up for that (actually I'm not sure if there are prizes or not, but I may try to wangle a bottle of Lagavulin out of Mr Feldman).

So all in all I'm looking forward to what should be a really fun and interesting event ... I guess I'd better get working on wrapping those presentations up!

Traditional GIS vendor market share for 2008-2009

Daratech has published its annual analysis of the GIS industry. I thought there were a few interesting things worth commenting on there. First I should say though that I am generally somewhat skeptical of these type of reports - there is a lot of subjectivity in what gets included and what doesn't. One illustration of this was when Bentley suddenly jumped to the number 2 position ahead of Intergraph a couple of years ago - and apparently kept that for a second year. While I was clearly not in an impartial position at that time (being CTO of Intergraph), this went against the intuition of myself and others I talked to in the industry - the general feeling was that somehow Bentley had persuaded Daratech to count a lot of "CAD" revenue as "GIS". And to be fair, there is a lot of debate about how much of Intergraph's revenue is "GIS" and should be counted here. For example, Intergraph does a lot of business providing 911 call taking systems in the Public Safety space, which have a strong geospatial element to them - do you or don't you count those in this number? There is a good argument in favor, but it might not be what everyone calls "GIS". In this year's version, Intergraph's revenue is twice that of Bentley (which is hard to reconcile with Bentley being second last year).

Anyway, all those caveats notwithstanding, the top three vendors for 2009 are projected to be ESRI with 30%, Intergraph with 16%, and GE Energy (Smallworld) with somewhere around 8% (exact figure not stated in this summary, approximate figure deduced from chart). No surprise to see ESRI and Intergraph in the top two spots, which has been the generally accepted state of affairs for most industry observers for a long time. From a personal perspective it is nice to also see Smallworld (GE) still in the number 3 spot, where they have been on and off - there are several others vying for that (so my former companies get 2 of the top 3 slots!). The report also says that GE/Smallworld has top position in utilities with 24% of the market - almost as strong as ESRI's position in the overall market.

I think it's interesting though that ESRI's share (which is consistent with previous reports) is actually lower than many people perceive. ESRI clearly is the dominant player in the traditional GIS space, they enjoy an effective monopoly in many markets (for example see Andrew's recent post on a US Air Force sole source bid), and their "mindshare" is pervasive. Many people I talk to, especially those in the "neo" world, assume that "everyone" doing "traditional GIS" is using ESRI. But what this report says is that 70% of people are not using ESRI (well 70% of the revenue comes from people not using ESRI, which is not necessarily the same thing - but nevertheless, a lot of people are not using ESRI). But you have to give ESRI credit for the way they have achieved such "thought domination" with "only" a 30% market share. I often think that there are several interesting comparisons to draw between the dominant positions of ESRI and Microsoft in their respective markets (maybe there is more for a future post there). Microsoft has operating system market share of 90%-ish, and Apple somewhere around 8%, but Apple has arguably more thought leadership and buzz around its offerings than Microsoft does. But there is very little of that sort of alternative thought widely seen in the traditional GIS space, even though Intergraph and Smallworld still have certain areas where they have technical advantages and/or alternative approaches to offer compared to ESRI.

However, we are now seeing more diversity of thought reaching a broader audience from the "neogeography" side of the house, which is a good thing for the industry. And this leads into the other area that I wanted to comment on, which is how it is increasingly hard to do this kind of market share analysis on the geospatial market, as geospatial technology becomes more imbedded in mainstream IT. As geospatial data becomes just another data type and becomes an element of many different applications, how do you say that a given application is "geospatial" or not? There is no place on this list for Google, Microsoft or Oracle, for example, all of whom clearly play a major role in the geospatial market these days. And there is nothing that captures the strong growth that I perceive in open source geospatial software (by definition, software revenue is not going to be a good metric for measuring the market share of free software!).

So overall, while there are certainly some interesting tidbits in this Daratech report summary, it is not at all reflective of the overall state of the broader geospatial industry, where it is increasingly hard to even define the market, let alone to measure market share in a quantitative way.

For those that are interested in quantitative analysis of the "traditional geospatial" market, I would also suggest considering the annual Geospatial Technology Report from GITA, which uses an alternative approach based on survey responses from GITA member organizations. There are potential flaws in that methodology too, but in many ways it is less subjective than something based on vendor revenues, and it provides a lot of additional detail on various aspects of how people are using the technology, which I have found interesting in the past. It's also a lot cheaper! (I should add for full disclosure that I am a former member of the board of directors of GITA, but I receive no remuneration for sales of GITA reports!).

Update: Matt Ball has a good post discussing the relevance of these type of industry reports.

What is the Smart Grid?

Here is the second (of two) short video presentations on what the Smart Grid is, at a high level. This follows on from my previous one on why we need a Smart Grid - you should watch that one before watching this one.

In future installments I'll talk more about some of the IT challenges in making the Smart Grid happen, the impact of geospatial technology / GIS on the Smart Grid and vice versa.

The Smart Grid, Part 2 from Peter Batty on Vimeo.

WhereCamp5280 is almost upon us!

As I have posted about previously, I'm helping to organize a cool, and FREE, "geo-unconference" in Denver called WhereCamp5280 (5280 = the altitude of Denver in feet, for those not from round here!), which is now almost upon us - it's this Friday and Saturday, August 14-15. We've been really pleased with the response - check out the list of likely attendees and potential talks (being an unconference, the schedule isn't fixed in advance - and there will be a lot more talks and discussion topics added "on the fly" during the event).

We initially thought it would just be a local event, but we have quite a lot of distinguished visitors from around the country, including founder of OpenStreetMap Steve Coast, uber-geoblogger James Fee, Executive Director of OSGeo Tyler Mitchell, ESRI product gurus Bern Szukalski and Victoria Koujoumjian from Redlands, and more. We have a lot of founders of local geo startups coming along, including Martin May of Brightkite, Andrei Taraschuk of UMapper, Duncan McCall of PublicEarth, Charlie Savage of Zerista, Tom Churchill of Churchill Navigation, and Brian Timoney of the Timoney Group. Oh and me :). We have geogeektv stars Dave Bouwman and Brian Noyle. And loads of local geospatial software users and developers who are doing lots of cool things with all kinds of technologies - and sorry to all the attendees I haven't mentioned by name ... I guess I really shouldn't have started this list, it will get me into trouble with someone! (The beer's on me at the social event if I missed you off the list!).

Talking of which, we've also had a great response from sponsors, which is really gratifying in the current economy - thanks a lot to our gold sponsor ESRI, silver sponsors Bohannan Huston, DTSAgile and PublicEarth, bronze sponsors Enspiria Solutions, A Mountain Top and UMapper, media sponsor AnyGeo / GISuser, and facilities sponsor GTAC at DU.

I'm looking forward to a really fun and interesting event. The sessions will be at University of Denver in Sturm Hall, and we'll have a fun social event on Friday night at my loft above the Wynkoop Brewing Company. There's still time to sign up - hope to see you there!

Why do we need a Smart Grid?

In my role as Chief Technology Advisor at Enspiria Solutions, I've recently been researching the Smart Grid. I've found that even a lot of people working in the electric industry have somewhat fuzzy ideas about it, or understand some aspects but not others. I've put together some short presentations on the subject. The first two you might call "Smart Grid 101" - the first one, below, talks about why we need a Smart Grid, and the second one, which I'll publish shortly, talks about what the Smart Grid is, at a high level. I've tried to make these understandable without any particular knowledge of the electric industry. In subsequent talks I'll discuss some of the IT challenges in implementing the Smart Grid, and look in particular at how the Smart Grid will impact geospatial technology, and vice versa.

So here's part 1, it's about ten minutes long ...

The Smart Grid, Part 1 from Peter Batty on Vimeo.

Update - see Part 2 on What is the Smart Grid?.